The science page
What we’re building on, and what we won’t claim.
This product is a design. Nothing here is a result. Below is the evidence it draws on, marked by how closely we read each source, the claims we refuse to make, and the questions we can’t answer yet.
The claim
One claim we make. One we don’t.
What we make
A small group, one shared plan in person, private reflection, and a second plan offered only when two people each say, independently, that they would meet again: that loop gives a second meeting a clear path. It is a hypothesis we intend to test. The thing we would measure is a second meeting that both people report.
What we don’t
We don’t claim the product builds friendship, reduces loneliness or improves well-being. No evidence in hand shows an intervention like this does. We also don’t claim to be the only product that tries: group dinners, friendship apps and interest groups all overlap with it, and the edge we describe is a hypothesis. The baseline to beat is a well-run event with ordinary introductions and manual follow-up.
Evidence ledger
Nine things we lean on, and how far each goes.
Each row says what was found, where it came from, how closely we read it, what the design does with it, and what we won’t say because of it. Some of the design uses are intentions the demo does not show yet.
A sentence that rests on a relayed source needs a first-hand read and review by someone who studies this before it should be relied on. Until then, treat those rows as leads.
-
F1
Deeper conversation
Relayed, not openedKardas, Kumar & Epley (2022).
- Found
- Strangers assigned a deeper 20-minute conversation reported higher felt connection than those assigned a shallow one. People also tended to expect deep conversation to be more awkward than it turned out to be.
- The design does
- Offers optional “go a little deeper” prompts in the prep chat. Skipping is as prominent as using, and a line names the source.
- We won’t say
Deep talk makes friends.
It raises connection.
Anything about later contact: the studies did not establish it.
-
F2
Brain signals
Self-listed, under reviewA manuscript under review; its details are withheld until it is published.
- Found
- We hold one self-listed source on brain signals and conversation. It is a lead and nothing more, and classification figures from small samples are not accuracy you could expect in use.
- The design does
- Nothing. No brain, voice or text-to-brain inference appears anywhere in the product.
- We won’t say
We can detect connection.
Any accuracy figure.
-
F3
The liking gap, and who sees what
Relayed, not openedBoothby, Cooney, Sandstrom & Clark (2018); Vazire (2010).
- Found
- People tend to underestimate how much a conversation partner liked them. Self and others each see some traits more accurately than the other does.
- The design does
- A reflection with three voices (what you said, what a participant reported, what the chat showed), each line correctable. A sealed, independent “see again” answer; one-sided interest is never revealed.
- We won’t say
- Made-up reassurance.
Someone likes you
before it is mutual. That four near-strangers see you as accurately as established friends do.
-
F4
Time together
Relayed, not openedHall (2019); Pearce, Launay & Dunbar (2015).
- Found
- Time together, leisure and everyday talk are associated with closeness. Group formats can change the pace of bonding without determining where it ends up.
- The design does
- Makes the second plan the high point of the loop, shows a plain count of meetings, and lets people choose an activity format.
- We won’t say
- No hours-to-friendship figure,
You are three meetings away
, or streak counter.
-
F5
Group size
Our own reasoningNo source behind it.
- Found
- Nothing we hold establishes five as the best group size.
- The design does
- Treats five as a starting choice: one table, four people to reflect on, and one no-show doesn’t cancel the evening. Group size is a variable the pilot can vary.
- We won’t say
Research shows five.
Any justification from friendship-group-size theory.Anonymous
, in a group of five.
-
F6
The event matters a lot
Our own reasoningConsistent with Pearce et al. (2015), but our inference.
- Found
- Venue, host, access and who turns up can swamp any effect of who is in the group.
- The design does
- Shows duration, access, host, cost and how to cancel on the ticket. Asks “did you enjoy the activity” and “would you see them again” as separate questions, and keeps a record of format, venue, host and attendance.
- We won’t say
- That the product evaluates hosts, or pairs people with hosts.
-
F7
An optional friendship check-in
First-hand read (extract)Kaufman et al., Friendship Network Satisfaction (online 2021; figures below are from pages 5, 6, 11, 13 and 16); Kaufman (2020), UCLA dissertation.
- Found
- A 14-item scale rating agreement from 0 to 5 about your whole friendship network over the past year. High internal consistency (alpha .96). Two facets, closeness and socializing, add little beyond the total. Two online samples, about 2,100 and 2,000 people. No test-retest data, no norms, and no testing of whether it works the same way for different groups.
- The design does
- Offers it as an optional whole-network check-in, as published, outside the main flow, shown only to the person. Scoring and permission to use it are marked pending confirmation from the scale’s authors.
- We won’t say
- Anything that ranks a person against others, or says what a total should be.
Your score went up.
A shortenedvalidated
version. A person, pair or event is never rated with it.
-
F8
Satisfied with friends is not the same as not lonely
First-hand read (extract)Kaufman et al.; Kaufman (2020).
- Found
- Satisfaction with friends and loneliness were only weakly related (a correlation of about .22 in size, in the expected direction, page 14). The authors report that loneliness varies widely at every level of friendship satisfaction. A schematic follows in the check-in section.
- The design does
- Puts one line beside the optional check-in: being satisfied with friends is not the same as not being lonely.
- We won’t say
Reduces loneliness.
A low number means lonely.
Nothing clinical.
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F9
Twenty reports are not twenty facts
Our own reasoningNo source behind it.
- Found
- Five people give ten pairs and twenty directed reports, and they are not independent of each other. A handful of groups can only describe what happened.
- The design does
- Shows follow-ups (happened, planned, declined, no reply) with their denominators, and treats no answer as not a no.
- We won’t say
Twenty data points.
Any p-value or success rate drawn from the demo’s example people.
Outcomes
Five rungs. Only the last one counts.
The first four are what people tell us at the time. A result would be the fifth: a second meeting that both people report. Chat volume, survey completion and time in the app are not measures of anything we care about.
- Enjoyed the planReported that evening.
- Felt understoodReported, privately.
- Wants to see someone againSealed, and shown to nobody.
- MutualBoth said so independently.
- Second meetingBoth people report it happened.
Measurement honesty
Five people, ten pairs, twenty reports.
Each person reports on each of the other four, so one group yields twenty directed reports. They share the same five people, so they are not twenty independent data points.
A handful of groups can be described. They can’t be generalised from. We report every follow-up with its denominator: happened, planned, declined, no reply. No answer is not a no.
The optional check-in
Offered as published. Shown only to you.
It asks about your whole friendship network over the past year, not about anyone you meet here. You can skip it, and skip any item.
It is 14 statements rated from 0 to 5. The result is one total, shown to the person alone. A skipped item shows as incomplete and never as a total.
Two things are not settled. The authors’ scale has no norms, so we don’t compare a total with anyone else’s or draw lines on it. And the 14 statements are not reproduced on this page: they appear in the app only as published, after the scale’s authors confirm how we may use and total them. That confirmation is pending.
Being satisfied with friends is not the same as not being lonely.
The red list
What we don’t claim.
These are lines the product and this site don’t cross, shown as the words we refuse.
- We don’t say
proves
,causes
orboosts
. We say “reported” and “associated with”. - We don’t say the product builds friendship, reduces loneliness or improves well-being.
- We don’t show a percentile, a norm, a compatibility figure, or a shortened
validated
instrument. - We don’t say
match
. The words here are groups, plans and events. - We don’t say
anonymous
about a group of five. We say “a participant reported”. - We don’t invent warm feedback. A person’s words appear only if a source permitted them, with a way to correct them.
- We don’t promise hours, say conflict builds bonds, or detect friendship from brain, voice or text.
- We don’t say our edge is unique. Others overlap with us, and our edge is a hypothesis.
- We don’t imply a sponsoring institution, a named expert’s involvement, a live pilot, or real users. Everyone shown is fictional, so the example shows how the loop works and says nothing about privacy, access control or benefit.
- We don’t treat pilot thresholds as benchmarks. They are bars we chose.
Consent
What each choice covers.
Each purpose is its own choice. Declining one leaves the others working.
- Chat readingOff until all five say yes, and anyone can turn it off again. With it off, every other part of the plan works the same.Shown in the demo
- Private noteA note only you read. It stays with you unless you choose to carry it to the second plan.Shown in the demo
- Sealed answersWho you’d see again is shown to nobody. Only a mutual yes opens anything, and a one-sided answer stays hidden.Shown in the demo
- ReportsGo to a person at the product, never to the group, and never change a sealed answer.Shown in the demo
- Research useOff by default. No ethics review exists yet, so no data from real people can be used for research.Designed, not built
What we don’t know yet
Open questions, in plain sight.
- Which friendship instruments are cleared for use in a demo, and who confirms how they are totalled?
- Which conversation signals, if any, may be used with consent in an app, and which claims stay off limits?
- What is a research-defensible next step after an optional self-report?
- Does any study we hold measure later contact after a first conversation? None we have read so far does.
- There is a missing bridge between a measure of connection after one conversation and a measure of a whole friendship network. Nothing we hold connects them.
- Group size and event format could be pilot variables. What design would tell them apart from the effect of a particular host and venue?
- Events and hosts are the largest unknown. What a good host and venue cost per group, and how much of any result they explain, is not something we can say.
- No ethics review has been done, and none exists today.
The pilot we’d run
One neighborhood. Four weeks.
Two groups of five a week. We would call it working on three bars, each one chosen by us. None comes from a benchmark or any other source.
Of the people who say I’m in.
Both people report it happened.
Every report followed up by a person.
Chosen, not benchmarks. With a handful of groups, results would be descriptive only.
References
Sources, and how closely we read each.
- Boothby, E. J., Cooney, G., Sandstrom, G. M., & Clark, M. S. (2018). The liking gap in conversations. Psychological Science.Relayed, not opened
- Hall, J. A. (2019). How many hours does it take to make a friend? Journal of Social and Personal Relationships.Relayed, not opened
- Kardas, M., Kumar, A., & Epley, N. (2022). Overly shallow? Miscalibrated expectations create a barrier to deeper conversation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.Relayed, not opened
- Kaufman, V. A. (2020). Doctoral dissertation, UCLA (friendship network satisfaction and well-being).First-hand read (extract)
- Kaufman, V. A., et al. Friendship Network Satisfaction: a multifaceted construct. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships (published online 2021; issue year to confirm).First-hand read (extract)
- Miao, G., et al. Manuscript under review; details withheld until it is published.Self-listed, under review
- Pearce, E., Launay, J., & Dunbar, R. I. M. (2015). The ice-breaker effect: singing mediates fast social bonding. Royal Society Open Science.Relayed, not opened
- Vazire, S. (2010). Who knows what about a person? The self–other knowledge asymmetry (SOKA) model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.Relayed, not opened